topic 5 dq 1 20

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Please Respond to the following post with a paragraph, add citations and references.

The main issue here is the “causal” statement that is made. The error is that correlation does not necessarily mean causation. In a correlation you cannot say variable A causes variable B. This only shows the correlation of heart rate and smoking. There might be a causal relationship, but you cannot say there is one with the evidence from a correlation. A correlation does not control for any of the other variables that might be driving the cause. For valid linear correlation between two variables required the mutual influence of each variable on other so that there can be a relationship between two variables of cause and effect. Like there is a correlation between demand and supply (Pagano, 1981). Where demand can cause to increase or decrease the supply as an effect. Looking at the example: “Cigarettes cause the pulse rate to increase” there are a number of other factors that could be the causing factor. It could be the replacement of air with smoke is why someone’s pulse rate gets higher as they prepare to smoke a cigarette, gender, age, type of cigarettes, as well as general health factors. For instance, a smoker of thirty years will see a more pronounced heart rate increase as opposed to someone of only a few months. Health factors such as tachycardia can affect the rate as well and that sort of variable, current health, is not accounted for. While the main component used here is a well-defined statistical and evidenced concept, there are no other variables considered here. Without these other variables this is only a correlation and not a definitive of causation unless the other correlating variables are present and accounted for and therefore cannot represent a conclusion. If this idea was tested in an experiment where the other variables are controlled, then the claim might be able to be made, but an experiment would be needed to do so.

References

Pagano, R. R. (1981). Understanding statistics in the behavioral sciences. St. Paul: West Pub Co.

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